Referendum. Is Greek PM Gambling again?

Greek PM hinted yesterday at the possibility of holding a referendum for the approval of the medium term rescue plan. This would be a huge gamble for Greece and the Euro if it goes ahead. The Greek PM is trying to blackmail the Greeks into "accept the austerity and the rescue by IMF or vote yourselves out of the EU and the Euro". The great majority of the Greeks disapprove the IMF/EU/ECB rescue yet they want to stay in the Eurozone. This may be a cunning plot to get the mandate to push the reforms but is a dangerous one. Greek PM is playing Russian roulette.

It is conceivable that the dilemma for the referendum would be either vote for the Medium Term Plan or we don't get the money and we don't pay pensions and we drop out of Euro and all hell breaks loose. High stake strategy, but the danger of saying no has unpredictable consequences.

Senario 1.Greeks vote down the plan.

The government would have to go back to the EU and draw another plan armed with the rejection. Greek PM asks the EU to respect the plebiscite as this is a "democratic" union. Presumably, the EU would cough up the emergency money in between for Greece to avoid default and misery for the ECB (major bondholder). The danger is that there would be a run on the banks before the voting takes place or that the EU lifts the middle finger. On the other hand it is the perfect excuse to renegotiate the rescue plan. Politically, it bites at the heart of the opposition by passing the blame to them for the lack of cooperation and for pushing Greece into the abyss. Let us not forget that political polarization always helps the current government (devil you know). It also serves to unite the government party which basically opposes the PM's choices. Greeks may remember a similar dilemma in 1974 (fall of military junta) "Karamanlis or the tanks" (Karamanlis was the caretaker PM and uncle of the previous discredited PM).
Either the Greek PM got secret assurances that the EU would help even in the rejection case or he is planting a nuclear bomb at the center of the EU.

Senario 2. Greeks vote for the Medium Term Plan

In this case, obviously the Greeks survive to fight for another installment. The opposition is in disarray and the Greek PM is the new Machiavelli. Well, referendums do not give birth to money and what would be more important is the implementation of the measures and not the approval. Too many laws in Greece are not observed to make this the norm rather than the exception. The victory may be narrow, in which case it may hard for him to survive the political capital he expended. So he may win the referendum but loose the parliamentary majority. The problem with the Greek government is that the portray the rescue plan and reforms as dictated by evil economic interests and not as necessary reform for Greece.